The Future of Talent: How Labour Market changes + AI are reshaping the workforce

Are we sleepwalking into a talent crisis?

Daniel used this provocative question to start his presentation, and quoted former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who said, back in 2018, that: “The pace of change has never been this fast, yet it will never be this slow again. The acceleration of change has made it increasingly difficult for organisations to even take stock, let alone act, around the best course of action. To avoid sleepwalking into a talent crisis, the goal of Talent Intelligence is to transform talent into a proactive, rather than reactive, strategy.

Monitor, Model and Mobilise

Daniel set out three pillars – Monitor, Model and Mobilise – that help us achieve Talent Intelligence

• Monitor. How can organisations research emerging trends, make deeper insights and continuously scan for new signals? The old model – taking months to research a subject and draft a paper or report – is now too slow, so it’s important to build in mechanisms to repeat analysis and challenge old assumptions.
• Model. With new data and findings to hand, the task is then to apply them rapidly to assess risk and create scenarios and then turn these insights into strategic options.
• Mobilise. These options then need to result in bold and decisive actions, from top to bottom in any organisation.

What is the big picture data showing us? Here are some of the key future trends Daniel identified:

Demographic dilemmas

A big fall in the birth rates is expected in many developed countries. The World Bank data projects that for every 100 people in the UK today, there will only be 62 grandchildren. These figures will be far lower for other countries, such as China (35) and South Korea (18). This clearly has a major impact on how to pay for pensions and health services, and whether organisations can find the talent they need.

The data also suggests that population growth will be strongest in Africa. This raises other questions around whether these countries have the support, infrastructure and environment in which present and future employees can succeed, to solve talent shortages around the world.

The dearth of future talent also raises questions around the longevity and shape of the career journey.  Daniel cited data that revealed concerns over the physical, mental and cognitive development of children and young adults with factors like economic instability, nutrition and excessive screen time causing disruption to longstanding positive trends. He asked whether future generations will feel increasingly unable to retire at current norms or be able to return to a rapidly changing workplace, should they leave at any point.

Talent Intelligence shows a clear mismatch of expectations in this area, with an Investopedia Financial Literacy Study showing that each successive generation expects to retire earlier than the one before, conflicting with demographic trends suggesting the opposite will be true.

Engagement and AI: A new hope?

Highly relevant in the solution to these unpromising likely future trends is the role of engagement. According to Gallup, the current global average for engaged workers is less than one in four (23%), with a lower proportion of engaged workers in the UK (10%), Germany and France. While the present data is disappointing, it also signals a massive upside potential for fulfilling careers in the future for those organisations that understand these challenges.

The dearth of talent can only accelerate the adoption of Artificial Intelligence and the way this is approached will have a significant impact on the world of work. There is some cause for hope here. Evidence from the World Economic Forum suggests that AI will create more jobs than it destroys (although there will likely be widespread disruption while job markets adjust). And other research suggests that positive emotions increase in those teams and individuals able to work with AI, compared to those with no access.

How organisations use AI is therefore crucial. If the focus of its introduction is solely around organisational productivity and job replacement, the impact on engagement and careers is likely to be adverse. But if the emphasis of AI is on improving overall job quality, mental health, and workforce well-being, then greater productivity will surely follow from a more engaged and happier workforce.

Our view

The Career Innovation Company is a strong advocate for humanising work in the digital age, through the broadening of ‘careers’ to being about far more than just acquiring new skills. We like to put an emphasis on promoting career resonance (based on work by sociologist and political scientist Hartmut Rosa) which:

• Describes a mutual relationship between an individual and another person, thing or place, from which the individual feels moved and inclined to act.
• Refers to a state of meaningful, fulfilling, and emotionally rewarding work that motivates and energises individuals, leading to personal growth and a sense of purpose. And which is …
• The opposite of burnout, disconnection and alienation.

We encourage those concerned with the future of their talent to ask themselves how they can:

• Design jobs in a digital world that support enhanced employee engagement for everyone.
• Help people to foster career resonance as AI transforms the nature of work, skills and jobs.

Despite the challenges to future talent development outlined above, the integration of career resonance with AI in our view presents a unique opportunity to enrich work environments, enhance employee satisfaction, as well as driving productivity improvements. Crucially, it opens new pathways for reskilling, internal mobility and, ultimately, better retention outcomes.